WGSN – Bike Forecast 2026
Discover the key opportunities for product development in our annual forecast on the bike industry, as reinforced by our Trend Investment Projection and STEPIC Index methodologies. We define the major design trends as they evolve to meet the priorities driving our Sports & Outdoor Personas 2026
Justin Paget / Getty Images
Executive summary
Use our Bike Forecast 2026 to contrast your strategy against key areas of innovation and as direction for product design and development. Each theme is mapped to the Sports & Outdoors Personas report with which it aligns.
Opportunity: the global bicycle market is projected to grow to $76bn by 2027 with a CAGR of +4.7%. New categories like gravel see increased participation, and the demand for accessible adventure continues.
In China, 75% of all bikes sold in 2022 were e-bikes, and the global e-bike market is set to grow to $53bn by 2029 with a CAGR of +8.0%. With the increased range and speed that e-bikes offer, safety and utility will be critical growth areas as consumers look to replace short car trips with e-bike rides.
Key directions:
- Gravel expansion: opportunities within the entire product ecosystem of the gravel category will increase as this global sport continues to grow in popularity
- Protection by air: airbag systems will make cycling safer, giving consumers peace of mind to enjoy more trips by bike
- Exploration for everyone: products in the bikepacking space have excellent growth potential as more and more consumers seek accessible adventure across all groups and experience levels
- E-utility: utility and function will be critical areas of focus with new consumers entering the market as e-bikes become almost as affordable as their acoustic counterparts
- Integrated tech: this will be as prevalent as the shift to disc brakes, as battery packs on acoustic and electric bikes become commonplace
STEPIC Drivers: The Age Spectrum, Intentional Tech, World-Building
STEPIC Innovations: Life-Stage Design, AI for Good, Glimmers
[1] Statista [2] Strava [3] Outdoor Industry Association
Gravel cycling expansion
Capitalise on gravel cycling’s momentum. It‘s one of the fastest-growing global sports on Strava with a 55% YoY increase in athletes who recorded a gravel ride in 2023. New events and race series are being added every season.
Strategies: tap into this fast-evolving category. Gravel bikes are more capable than ever and will continue to gain market share since many consumers don’t have the space or budget for a quiver of bikes. Gravel bikes’ versatility means they can be used for weekday commuting, training rides, bikepacking and ultra-endurance events.
Good, better, best: with gravel’s surge in popularity, product assortments must occupy the entire good, better and best pricing spectrum. The good or low price points are the most critical since the category is the most approachable for first-time buyers. Gravel bikes are less intimidating than mountain bikes and less twitchy than traditional road bikes, making them approachable to newcomers.
Form and function: design for versatility. Gravel bikes are blurring the lines of cross-country hardtails in terms of geometry and capability. It’s becoming common to see new gravel bikes equipped with features such as dropper posts and suspension forks, typically components reserved for mountain bikes.
CMF: use purposeful, zonal gloss and matte dual finishes to add a second read of interest when applied over deep, natural and neutral tones highlighted with metallic flakes or pearlescent effects.
Graphics: these should be minimal, emphasising refined and well-placed wordmarks and logos. Techmarks should be designed to disappear, almost unnoticeable from ten feet away.
Big Ideas: Design for Need, Feel Appeal
Personas: The Impartialists, The Gleamers
GRAVEL MANIA / Gabriel Wibmer
Gravel cycling expansion
In action
Cane Creek
Cane Creek (US) claims the Invert fork is "the world's first gravel fork" because no other fork offers the same rider benefit in one clean package
The STEPIC Index is an indicator from 0 to 100, with 100 being the maximum score. It's used by our panel of sports and outdoor experts to score a trend based on alignment and lifespan with WGSN's proprietary STEPIC strategic forecasts.
Gravel bikes’ versatility means they can be used for commuting on weekdays to training rides, bike packing, and ultra-endurance events on weekends.
Redshift
The Top Shelf Handlebar features a double-bar construction for an upright riding position, and an additional mounting point for bags and accessories. It's also patent-pending
Fizik
The VENTO ARGO X1 has a short nose and rounded contours. The saddle provides better stability and support for technical trails and allows for a more aggressive riding position on long gravel rides
Protection by air
Implement supplemental airbag systems to make e-bike cycling safer for all. This market is expected to grow 8% CAGR by 2029, with cycling in dense urban areas bringing more emphasis on safety.
Strategy: airbags may not replace the traditional helmet as primary head protection. Look for opportunities to add secondary safety products that add an additional layer of protection.
Good, better, best: prepare to develop better or mid-price airbag systems as the e-bike market grows and consumers look for ways to add additional layers of safety, leading to higher volumes which will enable better pricing. Currently, airbag systems are only available at the best end of the price spectrum, with the EVOC Commute A.I.R. Pro costing almost six times more than the non-airbag-equipped Commute 22.
Form and function: airbag products should be designed to disappear and be integrated into products consumers already use. The modularity of outer layers and packs is ideal for adding airbag functionality. For nearly a decade, MotoGP and ski racers have benefited from predictive airbag protection systems built into racer suits, which provide protection that works parallel to a traditional helmet. Airbag systems that support the head and neck and protect shoulders in the event of an accident or crash will be vital to converting short trips by car to trips on bikes.
CMF: colour palettes should be neutral and made of abrasion-resistant materials for a long product lifespan. Design the airbag to be modular so customers have a more comprehensive selection of colours.
Graphics: informative and clear, but also hidden in plain sight so riders don’t accidentally cover or obscure the airbag deployment zones.
STEPIC forecasts:
Big Ideas: Scaled to Fit, Design for Need
Personas: The Impartialists, The Synergists
Evoc Sports
The COMMUTE A.I.R. PRO 18 from EVOC is a commute backpack with a hidden back protector and airbag system that deploys in 0.2 seconds when a crash is detected. These two technologies combined in the backpack can reduce up to 80% of the impact forces that occur during a fall, claims EVOC
Protection by air
In action
Autoliv
The Autoliv x POC prototype helmet is equipped with an airbag
EVOC's (Germany) COMMUTE A.I.R. PRO 18 is the world's first cycling backpack with an integrated airbag and back protector
The STEPIC Index is an indicator from 0 to 100, with 100 being the maximum score. It's used by our panel of sports and outdoor experts to score a trend based on alignment and lifespan with WGSN's proprietary STEPIC strategic forecasts
Love Life and Ride
The B'Safe (France) airbag vest is designed to protect cyclists with an ultra-fast airbag fall detection technology in case of an accident
Hövding's (Sweden) 3 Airbag helmet
