The next 10: markets that will matter in 10 years' time
The markets that matter now might not seem so important in the decade ahead, as emerging economies, new retail channels and new consumers come of age. These are the ones to watch.
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Vietnam: emerging market rankingsVietnam
Close proximity to the sophisticated retail market of Thailand means the Vietnamese consumer is primed for modern brands and global retailers. According to AT Kearney, foreign direct investment is allowed in Vietnam, while the mom-and-pop stores and markets are organised and profitable. Expect organised retail to reign in Vietnam.
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News story: Polo Ralph Lauren to launch mobile shopping siteMobile commerce
Already common in Japan, but coming to a country near you, retail via mobile phones - or "m-commerce" - is gathering momentum and will become a key way to buy travel and event tickets. Fashion brands are getting in on the act, too - witness Polo Ralph Lauren's new mobile commerce site launched in August 2008 - its stated aim is to be an m-commerce pioneer.
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China's smaller cities
With business already looking at China's second-tier cities, it's only a matter of time before the 300 or so second-to-fifth-tier provincial cities and satellite towns around the large urban centres come up on the international retail radar. Challenges will include creating sound infrastructure, finding quality locations, finding local talent and overcoming resistance to foreign brands.
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The Gulf States
Where Dubai has led, others are eager to follow. Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait are all eager to "do a Dubai" and develop their own shopping havens to cater to both visitors and local wealth. Expect more over-the-top luxury malls (even outdoor air-conditioned locations), lots of reclaimed land and attempts to differentiate by focusing on design and culture.
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Greater Russia
For fashion, the focus is currently on Moscow and St Petersburg, but improved infrastructure and experience will mean more access to Russia's other cities, totalling populations of over a million. Already substantial markets for consumer goods and local mid-market fashion chains, cities such as Yekaterinburg will attract the braver international brands.
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Mexico
A youthful population and proximity to the US should confirm Mexico as a market that matters over the next decade. Young Mexicans are a foundation for labour for local manufacturers - boosting US apparel firms' decision to source closer to home - but also act as consumers. The phasing out of anti-dumping measures against Chinese products should also help to open the Mexican market for Asian exporters.
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Istanbul sourcing conference: reportTurkey
Another country where production and consumption are of mutual benefit, Turkey's location between Europe and Asia gives it an edge in apparel sourcing and makes it the ideal quick-response market for European retailers. The stylish Istanbul crowd has already attracted fashion-forward department store Harvey Nichols, paving the way for more designer brands.
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Manila, Philippines
Long overlooked by the major fashion brands as a marginal territory with economic and logistical barriers to market, the Philippines (population 88million) is showing signs of a retail renaissance. With numerous urban developments earmarked for fashion flagships, multibrand boutique openings and buoyant trade across Manila's upmarket Makati district, the market is ripe for international fashion brands to roll in.
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North Korea
One of the last bastions of communism, North Korea's potential isn't obvious, but with gradually closer relations with its commercially savvy South Korean neighbour and a close eye on the benefits China has seen joining the world trading system, we may yet see the market opening up.
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The rise of the young affluentsYoung affluents
This will be the global luxury story of the next decade. Neither limited by borders, nor culture, this "want-it-all" generation will become the main focus for the luxury sector from 2010, says Unity Marketing research. Highly educated, materialistic and thorough in their research, young affluents will be a new worldwide market that is both challenging and rewarding.
